Is the residential property market is slowing? Are real estate sale prices stable? How is your city performing?
Sydney – prior to the market slowdown in 2008, Sydney property values had continually remained below their peak which was recorded in February 2004. It wasn’t until May 2009, more than five years since Sydney’s value peak that real estate values eclipsed their previous high; values are currently 11.7 per cent above their previous peak. Total value growth of 11.7 per cent in almost 6.5 years does not sound excessive to me, especially considering that the total value growth is below the total rate of inflation during that time.
Melbourne – values of Melbourne property reached their pre GFC peak during February 2008 unlike Sydney, Melbourne did not have the sustained period of value falls.During the 12 months to December 2007 Melbourne values increased by 20.9 per cent which was greater than the 13.7 per cent increase in national capital city home values over the period. Melbourne property values today are 20.7 per cent higher than their pre-GFC peak recorded in February 2008. I would suggest that property value growth of 20.7 per cent in less than 2.5 years I would classify as strong.
Brisbane – the market in Brisbane has underperformed since the GFC however if we look back we can begin to understand why this has been the case.2001-04 were the boom years where annual growth in Brisbane property values peaked at 36.7 per cent in October 2003, while peak growth nationally was recorded at 21.8 per cent in April 2002.The growth period leading up to the GFC, annual property value growth in Brisbane peaked at almost 23.0 per cent in November 2007 compared to 13.7 per cent nationally. Prior to the GFC Brisbane property values peaked during February 2008 and today values are just 2.6 per cent higher than the pre GFC level.
Adelaide – the Adelaide market has been a consistent performer (until this year). During the 2001-04 property boom the Adelaide market outperformed national value growth recording peak annual value growth of 43.3 per cent. When the market recorded strong growth in 2007, Adelaide’s performance eclipsed the national rate of growth recording a peak annual increase of 30.6 per cent.In April 2008, Adelaide homes reached their pre GFC peak. At the end of June property values are 8.4 per cent higher than the peak.
Perth – Similar to Brisbane, there is significant evidence that Perth’s market grew too quickly.During the 2001-04 boom Perth’s annual property value growth rate peaked at 27.7 per cent which was above the national peak (21.8 per cent). Perth’s housing market underwent another boom, fuelled by the mining and resources sector with annual value growth peaking at 45.9 per cent in July 2006.Prior to the economic slowdown, Perth values peaked in September 2007 and as at the end of June 2010 are 2.1 per cent higher than the previous peak in prices.
The results suggest that the markets which have recorded two peaks in property value growth in excess of the national rate of value growth have undergone a correction. This correction hasn’t been in the form of collapsing prices it has been a sustained period of below average growth within these markets.
Interestingly, following the recent peak in real estate value, Melbourne has now outperformed national growth rates during two periods; this suggests that the Melbourne real estate market will undergo a period where it could underperform national growth rates such as that witnessed over the last year in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
These results highlight one importance fact – look at all of the data not just a small snapshot.Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have not performed well this time but have overachieved in the past. Sydney values have increased in recent times but did nothing for a long period of time.Past trends suggest that Melbourne may be in for a period of sluggish value growth the next time the residential property market sees strong growth based on its superior performance during 2007 and since the end of 2008.
More detailed real estate data, including sales history, property sold prices and property reports visit www.myrp.com.au where you will find a comprehensive list of reports to suite your needs.
